Brazil will win the World Cup after England are knocked out in the quarter-finals in Qatar, according to leading analysis of tournament chances. Poor results since Gareth Southgate’s side’s Euro 2020 final appearance has seen England plunge from sixth to 13th in the report’s rankings, where they stand less of a chance of winning the World Cup than Uruguay.
Nielsen’s Gracenote, whose statistics predicted Euro glory for England’s women over the summer, says its latest modelling shows a sixth title for Brazil. The predictor will be constantly updated as the tournament kicks off on Sunday (Monday AEDT), but, as it stands, the analysis spells doom for Wales in the group stage.
Iran, rather than Wales or the United States, will qualify with England for the last 16, according to the report. England are most likely to win the group, and are then predicted to face Ecuador, ranked 18th in the last 16. The statistics would then suggest a quarter-final exit for England, potentially against France.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at Nielsen’s Gracenote, said: “England’s results in 2022 mean they have dropped from sixth place on our world ranking at the end of last year to 13th place now.
“This means that their chance of winning this year’s World Cup has reduced considerably and they are not among the favourites to win this year.”
The forecasts will be updated daily but, as it stands, Brazil have a 20 per cent chance of lifting the trophy after losing just three times in 50 matches since the 2018 World Cup. Argentina have a 16 per cent chance of becoming champions for the first time since 1986.
Brazil are rated a one-in-five chance of winning their sixth World Cup, with Neymar again set to be at the centre of proceedings.Credit:AP
Even though the teams would meet in the semi-finals if both win their respective groups, Gracenote simulations predict they will face each other in the final. The leading European contenders for the trophy are Spain and the Netherlands, both with a seven per cent chance. Belgium have a six per cent chance, France five per cent, while England are at three per cent.
Gracenote predicts the last 16 will be Argentina, Brazil, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany, Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, Iran and Mexico.
“Gracenote projects Brazil and Argentina to continue to outperform competitors in the upcoming tournament,” Gleave said.
“No other teams have been anywhere near as consistent over the last four years as the two South American giants and this consistency means that there is a good chance of one of them prevailing in front of a global audience of fans.”
In contrast with Gracenote’s calculations, England were rated last week as having the best hope of winning the World Cup in a calculation based on collective insurable value of players.
Using the same Lloyd’s model that correctly identified Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018, England came top of a ranking of metrics which includes wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position.
England’s Jude Bellingham is rated the most insurable player at the World Cup, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappe and Brazil’s Vinicius jnr.
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